◎ On Wednesday, the NYCB financial report of the New York Community Bank "Blasting Thunder" caused a sharp drop in the stock price by about 40%, causing panic."Silicon Valley Bank Crisis 2.0" is coming?Each Federal Reserve ’s former Risk Credit Director Rick Roberts and the co -founder and Group CEO Kashif Ansari of the Global Real Estate Technology Company, the Global Real Estate Technology Corporation.
◎ On the same day, Nor -Nord’s stock price of star weight loss pills span a major milestone, becoming the second European company with a market value of $ 500 billion after LV."One week" takes you into the global president and CEO Zhou Fude, who is boldly decided behind his success.
◎ Science and Technology Giant 2023Q4 Financial Report: Meta is the best; Japanese retail investors pour into the Indian stock market; more content, all in "One Week International Finance".
The New York Community Bank "Thunder", "Silicon Valley Bank 2.0" is coming?
For each Federal Reserve official
Image source: Visual India
About a year ago, the bankruptcy tide of US bank bankruptcy caused by the closure of the Silicon Valley Bank seemed to be vivid, and now the US financial market has encountered a storm.
Before the market on January 31st (Wednesday) in the United States, New York Community Banking Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as NYCB )’s financial report shows that the bank’s accident lost 260 million US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the earlier profit of US $ 206 million with analysts previously expectedIn sharp contrast.
After the financial report was released, NYCB fell sharply, fell 42.6%when the opening, and once fell by more than 46%at the beginning of the market, and finally closed down 37.7%on the same day.The bank’s largest decline during the global financial crisis in 2008 was the increase in its rebound after the Silicon Valley Bank crisis last year.This makes the market feel a little worried.On Thursday (February 1), NYCB continued to fall 11.13%, and then rebounded by 5.04%slightly on Friday (February 2).On Wednesday to Friday, three trading days fell 42.15%.
What’s more noteworthy is that on the same day when the NYCB financial report destroys market confidence, the Federal Reserve Federal Public Marketing Committee (hereinafter referred to as FOMC) has decided to maintain a high level of interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, and the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell shattered the market to cut interest rates in March.expected.Not only that, FOMC’s latest policy statement quietly deleted the saying that the banking system "stable and toughness" and the tightening of credit conditions may drag the economy, which undoubtedly added a panic to the market.
Is this the "scourge" that has caused deeper problems, and is the "Silicon Valley Bank Crisis 2.0" coming soon?
Picture source: Yahoo FinanceJaipur Stock
In an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter, Rick Roberts pointed out that "the long -term high interest rate of the Federal Reserve will cause banks to face losses due to rising interest rates, but these losses have been allocated. The case of NYCB is unique to unique.of."
In his opinion, the profit wave of NYCB in the fourth quarter of 2013 "is mainly due to the unique one -time payment payment of the bank, rather than a broader US banking issue."
NYCB’s performance is "exploding thunder", loan losses are more than 10 times higher than analysts expected by analysts
On January 31, Eastern time, NYCB announced the fourth quarter of the 2023 financial report.The data shows that the bank loses $ 260 million, which is far from the earlier profit of an analyst at US $ 206 million, and the bank’s profit was US $ 172 million in the same period in 2022.During the reporting period, the loss per share was $ 0.36, which was a profit from profit to the loss from the same period last year.
At the same time, NYCB announced that it would reduce the dividend of 5 cents, far less than the previous analyst expected to maintain the dividend of 17 cents.Capital requirements.According to Reuters, NYCB acquired some of the assets of the closure signature bank last year. In addition, the acquisition of Flagstar Bank in 2022, NYCB’s assets reached 116.3 billion US dollars, becoming 30 US assets in the United StatesOne of the largest banks, in accordance with regulatory regulations, need to reserve more capital and losses.
The financial report shows that during the reporting period, NYCB’s loan losses were allocated to $ 552 million, which was more than 10 times higher than the US $ 45 million predicted by analysts, and far exceeded the $ 62 million in the previous quarter.Reuters reports that this shows that its credit conditions are deteriorating.
Rating agency Moody’s stated that all long -term and short -term rating and evaluations of NYCB and its subsidiaries have been included in the list of observation lists that may be reduced.Brokers have also adjusted the NYCB rating. For example, the Raymond James analyst Steve Moss lowered the NYCB rating from "strongly recommended" to "the same as the city."Jaipur Investment
The plunge of NYCB has also dragged down US regional bank stocks.On Wednesday, the KBW regional banking index and the regional banking index KBW NASDAQ Regional Banking Index (KRX) all closed about 6%, and Shuangchuang’s largest single -day decline since the closure of Silicon Valley banks in March 13, 2023.The largest single -day decline since March 13 last year.Among the ingredients, the Silicon Valley National Bank (Valley National Bancorp) fell by about 7%, and Citizens Financial Group fell more than 4%.
The capital market was also caught off guard."Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that TRDE ALERT data shows that options dealers supported by the SPDR Standard Squid Fund Trading Fund have been holding a bullish tendency to US regional banks, especially in the short term.On the day of NYCB’s plunge, because investors’ expectations will be more dim, the transaction speed of these options is four times that of usual, and such options on that day are three times that of bullish options.
Former Federal Reserve officials: will not cause a wider regional bank crisis
The Wall Street Journal reported that the performance of the New York Community Bank’s performance "exploding thunder" reminds some investors in the US banking crisis that occurred in early 2023.Both Silicon Valley Bank and the First and Bank of China closed within a few weeks, triggering the crisis of trust in regional banks in regional banks and investors.
What’s more noteworthy is that on the same day of the NYCB financial report, FOMC has maintained interest rates at a high level for the fourth consecutive time, and Fed Chairman Powell crushed the market at the subsequent press conference.The expectations of cutting interest rates have further exacerbated investors’ anxiety.Reuters reported that high interest rates aimed at inhibiting inflation have dragged down loan profits of banks in the United States and the value of securities it held.
In addition, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" noticed that the latest policy statement released by FOMC deleted the saying that the banking system "stable and toughness" and the tightening of credit conditions may drag the economy.
In an interview with the Federal Reserve ’s risk credit director Rick Roberts, in an interview with the reporter of the Daily Economic News, the long -term high interest rate of the Federal Reserve’ s high interest rates will lead to losses due to rising interest rates, but these losses have been allocated.
He further explained to reporters, "The situation of NYCB is unique. The bank’s total assets as of the end of 2023 have exceeded 100 billion US dollars.In this sense.
Talking about the stock price of NYCB in recent days, Rick Roberts said, "Because investors have confused NYCB’s substantial losses and their impact on banks in other regions, the overall market value of this sector has declined in recent days."
A bank strategist headed by Yuri Seliger also wrote in a report to customers that a series of income reports recently released by the six major banks and regional banks in the United States show that the financial situation is improving. "This indicates that the accident of NYCBIt may be a single -sex event, not a more extensive indicator. "
Another analyst said that the problem of NYCB is mainly caused by its balance sheet, and the overall bank stocks are not facing pressure as great as in March last year.
Still need to be alert to commercial real estate risks
Although NYCB’s performance losses have exceeded losses, the risks of the commercial real estate industry faced by U.S. regional banks in high interest rate environments are still not underestimated.
Bloomberg reported that the reason why NYCB recorded the largest single -day decline in more than 30 years on Wednesday was because investors were worried that NYCB might be a precursor to the collapse of American commercial real estate.
The report shows that a report from four universities such as Stanford University shows that as of the third quarter of 2023, the US banking industry held about $ 2.7 trillion in commercial real estate debt.The decline in the value of commercial real estate may increase the risk of hundreds of US banks.According to data from real estate analysis company Green Street, the value of commercial real estate in the United States has fallen by 22%since the Fed started raising interest rates.
A report released by JP Morgan in April last year showed that commercial real estate loans accounted for 28.7%of small bank assets, while the proportion of large banks was only 6.5%.This means that the risk of small banks in commercial real estate is even greater.
"Regional banks do face the actual pressure of the upcoming commercial real estate loan expiration. It needs to be reinstated and then reduced. This is because the value of the collateral is now lower.For this reason, the key issue of the loan loss is whether they are loose enough when they are included in the expected commercial real estate loan losses (book funds).
Bloomberg quoted data provider Trepp data that by the end of 2025, major US banks will face about $ 560 billion in commercial real estate loans, accounting for more than half of the total real estate debt in the same period.
As for whether commercial real estate turmoil will cause deep crisis, the global real estate company headquarters in Kuala Lumpur’s Global Real Estate Science and Technology Company Juwai IQI (JUWAI IQI) Group co -founder and Group CEO Kashif Ansari told the reporter of "Daily Economic News", "The current commercial real estateThe dilemma faced is unlikely to cause the bank crisis like 2008.Banks may still recover some funds by selling assets by large discounts.Bone. Of course, the situation of each bank is different, and some institutions may have serious problems. "
The market value exceeds 500 billion US dollars!
Behind the success of Nuo and Nord is a "gambling" decision
Photo source: Novo Nord’s official website
The star pharmaceutical company Novo Nord has once again gained market attention.
On January 31, the company established in 1923 realized a major milestone, becoming the second European company after LVMH reached $ 500 billion.As of press time, the company’s stock price was $ 11.5.79 per share, with a market value of 515.974 billion US dollars.
Leading the company to climb the new peak is its star weight loss drugs.According to the financial report released on January 31, Novo Nord’s income increased by 31%year -on -year in 2023, of which included Ozempic (for type 2 diabetes and obesity treatment) and Wegovy (for the weight management of obesity patients), including the weight management of patients with obesity).The total sales of Smegugi peptide products increased by 88.78%year -on -year.From the perspective of a single product, Wegovy’s annual revenue increased year -on -year to 407%!
From the financial report data, it can be seen that Ozempic and Wegovy is not only a fist product that changes the fate of Nuo and Nord, but also changes the industry’s game rules.And this is inseparable from the company’s global president and CEO Lars FRUERGAARD JAøRGENSEN for a bold decision.
According to the Financial Times, shortly after receiving Nuo and Nord’s CEO in 2017, Zhou Fude made a decision to laid a foreshadowing for the later Danish pharmaceutical dealer.
At that time, the company has not launched Ozempic, which is far from the weighing management of obese patients.The management team was discussing whether it was necessary to conduct an expensive test to prove whether Wegovy could reduce the risk of heart disease and stroke.
The executives are full of various questions- "Why do we take such a test that we might not get nothing? If we have not found any problems in obesity, will the trial cost hundreds of millions of dollars be hit?Water drift? "
However, Zhou Fudai approved the test.In the end, his gambling was rewarded.Preliminary test data released in August 2023 shows that patients with patients using Wegovy suffer from cardiovascular events such as heart disease or stroke are 20%lower than those who use placements.
For a long time, the industry has recognized that weight loss can usually improve heart health, but no safe and effective weight loss drugs have proven to reduce specific risks.Wegovy’s success proves that obese drugs can not only lose weight, but also prevent heart disease, stroke or death related to the heart.The Associated Press said that this may change people’s views on new weight loss pills as beauty drugs and put pressure on medical insurance companies to ask them to incorporate them into the insurance scope.
This success made Novo Nord.In September last year, Nuo and Nord had silently surpassed LVMH, becoming the most valuable listed company in Europe, ending the latter’s top two and a half years.
Back to Zhou Fude himself, everything about him is low -key.In 1966, he was born on a pig farm on the Denmark Peninsula in Denmark. Foreign media described, "Here, he learned how to take responsibility since he was a child."
According to reports, Zhou Fude has a tall and thin figure and looks deeply considerate. It is very different from the CEO of the traditional image. His career began as an economist in Nuo and Nord’s healthcare and planning department.
In 1991, after completing his personal finance and business studies, Zhou Fude joined Nuo and Nord through graduate programs and worked in companies in the United States, Japan and the Netherlands.At the beginning of 2017, he was served as Novo Nord CEO, and it has been 7 years.
Foreign media said that Zhou Fude often drove an electric car to work by himself, and was contemplated on a kayak on the lake near his home.He will not claim that its products can be a pitch to solve social disadvantages like some Silicon Valley executives, but he believes that its company and industry can have "huge opportunities to affect the world."
Wegovy and OZEMPIC’s heat also made Zhou Fude selected as 2023 characters by the Financial Times.Now, there is an unlimited business opportunity in front of him -the Canadian Investment Bank BMO estimates that this (diabetes and diet pills) market can reach 130 billion to 140 billion US dollars per year during its peak.Norwegian investment management company predicts that Nuo, Nord and Lili, the main players in the market, may become members of the trillion dollars club.
But Zhou Fude also faced a huge challenge.According to the Financial Times, the company is still trying to expand the supply of Wegovy drugs. Although the potential patient group is very large, some health insurance companies are unwilling to pay.
In addition, these drugs have the risk of exacerbating health inequality.The price of Wegovy in the United States is $ 1,300 per month, but the net cost is usually about half, and Europe is lower.If the United States does not expand its insurance coverage, or the European public health system does not provide such drugs wider extensively, for many poorest people, this will be difficult for them to reach.
Google Lianlian’s tricks:
Gemini Pro supports Chinese, Bard learns to draw
After coming behind ChatGPT for almost a year, the Google chat robot Bard finally caught up in the picture generation.On February 1, local time, Google DeepMind Artificial Intelligence Laboratory said on social media that the Google Imagen2 model can be created for free.
On February 3rd, the reporter entered Bard to try. In just a few seconds, it generated a picture of two Nasdaq trading hall as required, but currently only supports English instructions.
Google also emphasizes its "reliability" in the release manuscript. Any image generated in Bard will use digital watermarks to facilitate testing whether it is generated by Google AI.
It is reported that Google is also developing the Bard upgraded version, benchmarking ChatGPT Plus, and will integrate Gemini’s strongest Ultra version.Google CEO Pichai said at a call conference call that this new version will adopt a subscription payment model.
In addition, the integrated Gemini Pro is fully rolled, adding more than 40 new languages, including Chinese, and these languages all support secondary inspections.
American companies’ layoffs surge 136%!
Artificial intelligence and weak economy are impacting the labor market
According to a report released by the US Fox News Network on February 1, a report released by Challenger (Challener and Grey & Christmas) showed that American companies’ layoffs increased by 136%from the previous month in January, and the second highest data since January 2009 appeared.
The company’s vice president of the company Andy Challener said that after experiencing a peaceful fourth quarter, the wave of layoffs swept the major US companies in January.Among them, financial enterprises have the largest layoffs, with a total of 23,238 layoffs, followed by technology companies, and 15,806 people.
Fox News said that in early 2024, the pace of layoffs of American companies’ layoffs means that under the influence of continuous inflation and high interest rates, the labor market has begun to deteriorate.
Technology Giant 2023Q4 Financial Report:
Meta rushing, Amazon’s profit increased 37 times
This week, a number of American technology giants released the Q4 financial report of 2023.
On Thursday, local time, on the eve of the 20th anniversary of Facebook’s establishment, the parent company Meta surrendered the "Best Financial Report in History".The first dividend.Benefiting from strong financial report data, Meta rose over 20%a week, with a stock price of 474 US dollars, a record high.
On the same day, Amazon announced that the net sales in the fourth quarter was 169.961 billion US dollars, an increase of 14%; net profit was US $ 10.624 billion, a significant increase of 37 times compared with the net profit of the same period last year.On Friday, Amazon rose nearly 8%, with a total market value of 1.78 trillion US dollars, exceeding Google.
In addition, Apple’s interest returned to increase year -on -year in the quarter, but the revenue of Greater China decreased by 13%; after Microsoft acquired Active Blizzard, the game revenue exceeded Windows;expected.
The wind of the brain interface is rising!
NEURALINK’s number one competitor is preparing for commercialization
Photo source: Synchron’s official website
After Musk announced that humans were implanted for the first time, the number one competitor, Synchron, also moved.
According to foreign media reports, Synchron announced on Thursday (February 1) local time (February 1), and Synchron announced the acquisition of a minority equity of the German thin film component technology company ACQUANDAS. Synchron will obtain the exclusive right to use the latter medical equipment in the latter.In addition, the two senior executives of Synchron will also join the board of ACQUANDAS.
As early as August 2020, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) awarded its "breakthrough equipment".In 2022, the company’s $ 75 million Series C financing received excess subscriptions. Investors were Bill Gates and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’s funds.
Synchron estimated that once the FDA’s key experiments were successful, its equipment was expected to be able to obtain business approval and officially listed in 2024.The acquisition of ACquandas’s equity may indicate that the listing time of the product is approaching, and the company is preparing for business demand.
Japanese retail investors pour into the Indian stock market
The latest data show that Japanese retail investors are pouring into the Indian stock market.
On February 2nd, according to Bloomberg’s compilation data, in January this year, the total assets of investment trust funds focusing on Indian stocks in Japan increased by 11%to 237 billion yen (about 11.5 billion yuan).Considering that India’s stock was appreciated at the price of the yen last month, the actual inflow of these Indian stock funds was about 140 billion yen. In contrast, the funds focusing on Japanese stocks had almost no net inflow within the same period.
A report issued by the Indian Ministry of Finance this week pointed out that India is expected to achieve an annual growth of 7%in the 2024 and 2025 fiscal year. It is expected that by 2027, India will become the third largest economy in the world, surpassing Japan and Japan andGermany.
S & P global rating has predicted that India will still be the fastest growing major economies in the next three years.In addition, according to a report from the United Nations, India’s population structure is also conducive to the development of the country. By 2050, India’s population is expected to increase by 17%.
Disclaimer: The content and data of this article are for reference only, and do not constitute investment suggestions.Based on this, the risk is on its own.
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